Thursday, February 17, 2022

How To Prepare A Trading Plan To Survive In The Market (Part 2)

This is probably going to be the most important article in this Price Action series. I’ll highlight the words “most important” again because it’s practical. Trading plan is a must-have for any trader in the market.

In all my articles, I always emphasize the word SURVIVE. Therefore, my preparation and planning are aimed at a single goal: SURVIVAL. Believe me, as long as you SURVIVE, you will naturally earn money.

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Capital plan and risk management in trading

How much money will you prepare to trade Forex?

No, the question should be: How much are you willing to lose to enter this market?

Answer: Each person has an income level. You should only put it in the market that is within your reach. The game of money is a game of psychology. A plan on capital and risk management will help you reduce the pressure from psychology.

For example,

+ My income level is $30,000/month => The total capital I am willing to put into my account is $15,000. And for each trade, I only accept a maximum loss of $300. Do you wonder why I can earn 30k USD a month? There will be a separate series to talk about this.

Capital plan and risk management in trading
Capital plan and risk management in trading

+ So now, I know in advance the risk when I make the wrong decisions: $300.

+ I will manage capital according to the R/R ratio (1R = 300$).

Psychology preparation in a trading plan

Lower expectations

The easiest way to make a lot of money is to import heroin and sell it to addicts.

The fastest way to get rich is to go to the nearest bank, show a gun and… tell that you are a robber.

The market is definitely not a place to make easy money and get rich quickly. Certainly not. So, if you come here with the illusion of “financial freedom”, it’s almost 99.99% that you will lose money.

Stop fantasizing about trading
Stop fantasizing about trading

The game of money is the game of those with knowledge, patience, and discipline. Without 1 of the 3 things above, you are forever just a “prey” of the market.

So, the first goal will be SURVIVAL. Do everything to survive in the market. Believe me, as long as you exist, money will come naturally. Throughout this series, you will see that. I can lose 5-7 trades in a row, but as long as the account has money, just 1 correct trade I will recover all the losses.

Get used to the fears

– How much will you lose when you are wrong?

Answer: 2% of the account. Is it too big for you? If yes, reduce that number to the lowest level which makes your mind comfortable.

In case you find it difficult to lose $200, reduce it to $20. If you still can’t accept the loss of 20$ for 1 trade, reduce it to 2$. It doesn’t matter, the important thing is that you feel comfortable.

Get used to the fear
Get used to the fear

– Losing money is the biggest risk in trading?

Answer: No. Losing money is part of the plan and the biggest risk is when you go wrong with the plan.

Experience: Fear of losing money is the biggest reason you let loose your discipline. Don’t dare to cut losses and always take profit early. The more you fear losing money, the more money you lose. So, instead of being afraid, make it a part of the game, face it, accept it and get used to it.

Learn to control everything with reason

Things in the market will always go like this. The price fluctuates => Your account money fluctuates => Your emotions move too. At this point, all previous plans will become superfluous and in the end, you lose everything to the market.

Personal experience: Enter orders correctly with what you have planned and ignore them.

Of course, there are many other traits such as patience, discipline, restraint, etc. But I will include it in later posts in this series.

Diary of September 3, 2021

Deposit $15000 into Exness exchange and $5000 into Binance to prepare capital for this Price Action series. In the next article, we will start to go into the real battle.

Capital in crypto exchange Binance
Capital in crypto exchange Binance

You should read below articles to prepare for the next one.

– About trend: Uptrend, Downtrend, Sideways, and Retest. The market trend is always the first factor that you and I need to pay attention to. Either follow the trend to make money, or go against the trend and die.

Supply and Demand zone. This will be where we focus on monitoring the price movement.

– 2 basic candlestick patterns: Pin Bar and Marubozu. The appearance of these 2 candlesticks in the Supply or Demand zone will be a signal for me to enter an order.

– My favorite time frames for analyzing and predicting price trends are Chart D1 and H4.

– Drawing tool: Tradingview. Entry tool: MT4.

Chart D1 and H4 on Tradingview
Chart D1 and H4 on Tradingview

– I will trade on every currency pair, gold, and Crypto market using the Price Action method. This will be a long series of practical trading combined with theory. You should re-read some of the articles I list out to be able to better understand what’s next.

See ya in the next article.

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Thursday, February 10, 2022

What Is Retest? The Most Effective Way To Trade Forex With Retest

There is a mantra in trading like this “Keep Calm And Wait Retest”. This is one of the secrets that help many people make money in Forex. So what is Retest that is so magical? Why is Forex trading with it such a safe and effective strategy?

And if you have been looking for a safe but highly effective trading strategy in Forex, then I believe this article is for you.

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What is Retest?

Retest is the process of the price bouncing back to the level that the market has previously broken.

I will explain the above definition through 4 of the most popular Retest patterns encountered in the market with specific illustrations.

(1) The price breaks out the resistance level and retests

When the price breaks out the resistance level and moves up, it usually tends to slightly decrease again to retest the recently crossed resistance.

The price breaks out the resistance level and retests
The price breaks out the resistance level and retests

(2) The price breaks out the support level and retests

First, the price breaks out of the support level and turns down. Then it will rise slightly again to retest the support level it just passed.

The price breaks out the support level and retests
The price breaks out the support level and retests

(3) The price surpasses the peaks in an uptrend and retests

The market is in an uptrend. The price will continuously surpass the top, creating a higher high than the previous one. And when surpassing the peak, the price often has a habit of retesting the peak it has just passed, then continues to rise.

The price surpasses the peaks in an uptrend and retests
The price surpasses the peaks in an uptrend and retests

(4) The price breaks the bottoms in a downtrend and retests

When the market enters a downtrend, the price will continuously decrease, creating lower lows than previous ones. And each time the bottom is broken, the price will likely retest the old bottom it has just passed, then continues to decrease.

The price breaks the bottoms in a downtrend and retests
The price breaks the bottoms in a downtrend and retests

The Retest patterns examples in real trading

1. The price breaks out the resistance level and retests.

Retest pattern example 1
Trading pattern example 1

2. The price breaks out the support level and retests.

Retest pattern example 2
Trading pattern example 2

3. The price surpasses the peaks in an uptrend and retests.

Retest pattern example 3
Trading pattern example 3

4. The price breaks the bottoms in a downtrend and retests.

Retest pattern example 4
Trading pattern example 4

Two types of Retest in technical analysis

Type 1: Standard Retest

A retest is considered standard when the price balances at the retest zones. The candlestick patterns in this case are usually Doji or Pin Bar.

For example, the price breaks through the resistance and moves up. Then it drops back and retests the resistance it just passed. The market created a balanced point with a Doji candle, then the price bounced back up. This is considered a standard pattern.

Standard retest
Standard retest

Type 2: Fake Retest

I will show you an example.

Price breaks the support level and drops. Then it retests with 1 Bearish Pin Bar candlestick. But the price doesn’t decrease like the standard type. It increases sharply again.

Fake Retest in technical analysis
Fake Retest in technical analysis

In this case, the market creates a Fake Retest to trap the traders.

Why is Retest one of the safest Forex trading methods?

Now you probably understand what Retest is in the price chart. But why is this one of the safest trading methods?

Why is Retest one of the safest Forex trading methods?
Why is Retest one of the safest Forex trading methods?

When the market breaks a certain level, it will start a new trend. Retest appears to strengthen that trend. And when you open trades at the retest points, you are following the trend to trade. This is why it is safe.

The secret of this strategy lies in concentration. When the price breaks out the resistance, you have to focus and wait for the Retest signal to Buy. On the contrary, when the price breaks the support level, you will only focus on the Sell trades.

Remember that Retest occurs only when the market starts a new trend. Therefore, its signal is not much. When it happens you only have 2 decisions to make. Open an order or do nothing. This reduces your total number of trades. The fewer transactions, the higher the efficiency.

Important candlestick signals and effective Forex strategy when Retest happens

There are 2 types of important signal candlesticks you need to keep in mind.

Doji or Pin Bar candlestick pattern

These are 2 candlestick patterns that often appear when the market retests. Because in the Retest zone, the price will create an equilibrium. Therefore, Doji and Pin Bar will appear the most.

Doji and Pin Bar are important signal candlestick patterns in Retest
Doji and Pin Bar are important signal candlestick patterns in Retest

When this type appears, you can open a position as follow.

Place a BUY position when the price breaks the resistance and retests.

+ Entry: When the price finishes creating a Doji or Bullish Pin Bar candlestick at the Retest point.

+ Stop Loss: Set at the nearest support level before the price breaks out.

+ Take Profit: When the price hits the resistance levels formed in the past.

Trade with Doji or Pin Bar candlestick pattern
Trade with Doji or Pin Bar candlestick pattern

Place a SELL position when the price breaks the support and retests.

+ Entry: When the price has finished creating a Doji candle or Bearish Pin Bar at the Retest point.

+ Stop Loss: Set at the nearest resistance level before the price breaks out.

+ Take Profit: When the price hits the support levels formed in the past.

Trade with Doji or Pin Bar candlestick pattern
Trade with Doji or Pin Bar candlestick pattern

Reversal candlestick patterns

When the market retests and creates reliable reversal candlestick patterns, they are also considered safe signals to trade with the Retest strategy.

The most probable bullish reversal candlestick patterns are Morning Star, Bullish Engulfing, Tweezer Bottoms, and Three Inside Up.

Reliable bearish reversal candlestick patterns are Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing, Tweezer Tops, Three Inside Down.

Reliable reversal candlestick pattern
Reliable reversal candlestick pattern

You can trade as follow.

Place a BUY position when the price breaks resistance and retests, creating bullish reversal candlestick patterns.

+ Entry: When the price finishes creating a bullish reversal candlestick pattern at the Retest point.

+ Stop Loss: Set at the nearest support level before the price breaks out.

+ Take Profit: When the price hits the resistance levels formed in the past.

Trade with Reversal candlestick patterns
Trade with Reversal candlestick patterns

Place a SELL position when the price breaks the support and retests, creating bearish reversal candlestick patterns.

+Entry: When the price finished creating a bearish reversal candlestick pattern at the Retest point.

+ Stop Loss: Set at the nearest resistance level before the price breaks out.

+ Take Profit: When the price hits the support levels formed in the past.

Trade with Reversal candlestick patterns
Trade with Reversal candlestick patterns

Summary

The market always repeats itself. And Retest is considered one of the safest places to open positions. Your job is to wait for it and enter the trade.

Hopefully, through this article, you will understand better what Retest is and why it has become a formula for making money in Forex. Good luck with your trading.

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Wednesday, February 9, 2022

What Is Price Action? Why Is It So Popular In Trading? (Part 1)

I will start a series of trading with Price Action on Forex, Gold, Crypto markets…

In this series, I will share my own experience on how to analyze, view and enter orders based on Price Action. It will consist of the following things.

– Detailed planning on capital, psychology, knowledge cultivating…

– Trading according to the plan

– Some small tips to reduce psychological factors in trading.

– Summary and statistics of my trading process.

Ok! Now we are going to the first post in this series. What is Price Action? Why is it so popular? This is some background knowledge you need to study first.

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What is Price Action?

Price Action (also known as PA) is a trading strategy that follows price movements. Simply put all your entry decisions will be based on the price chart (ie candlesticks).

The PA school is loved by many traders because of its simplicity. No need to be “complicated” with technical indicators or trading news. Just focus on the chart and the price movements. They will tell you the story of the market. From there, you will know what to do to make a profit.

What is Price Action?
What is Price Action?

My Price Action trading ideas

– Trend is the most important. The first question will be “What trend is the market in?”. Bullish (Uptrend), bearish (Downtrend), or sideways.

– Identify important supply and demand levels. I will call these the Key levels.

– Wait for the price to react at the Key level and create trading signals.

– Find the entry point to enter an order, the level of Stop Loss and Take Profit.

My Price Action trading ideas
My Price Action trading ideas

My trading style when it comes to Price Action is the above 4 steps. And in this series, I will only write and practice those 4 steps. For me, the decisive factors to make money in any market are psychology, capital management, discipline, and patience. As for knowledge, you just need to do the above 4 steps over and over again.

Why Price Action is popular?

“The market is always right.” You may have heard this saying before, let me repeat it once again “The market is always right”. So you and I, let’s focus on the price to listen to the story the market wants to tell.

Safe trend trading strategy

Price Action is a trend-following strategy to find safe entry points. To me, this is the biggest advantage of PA compared to other technical indicators.

People often say that fighting against the market trend is like stopping a train at its maximum speed. The result is your death without a doubt. Not going against the trend is the best way for you to survive in the market.

Trend trading is the best way to survive in the market
Trend trading is the best way to survive in the market

The pinnacle of simplicity

The simpler the better.”

Trading is not about having many screens in front of you or putting in a variety of charts and technical indicators. Don’t try to chase after things that are complicated and confusing. They only make you tired and easily get caught up in the market’s trading vortex.

Let’s start with simplicity. Let your mind be light and calm.

Price Action is the pinnacle of simplicity
Price Action is the pinnacle of simplicity

Flexibility

Trading according to Price Action means trading based on price movement. Therefore, regardless of the market, you can use it for analysis and prediction. Coin, Oil, Gold, Forex… or stock, you can all have PA as a trading method.

Not only that, you can use PA to Scalping with M15, or Swing with D1 time frame… No matter what your trading style is, Price Action can be used flexibly.

Some knowledge you have to prepare

I have prepared some extremely detailed articles for you to read. These are the basic knowledge for you to grasp about Price Action.

– What is the market trend? How to identify a trend? Read these four articles about Uptrend, Downtrend, Sideways and Retest/Pullback carefully.

Knowledge of Uptrend, Downtrend, and Sideways
Knowledge of Uptrend, Downtrend, and Sideways

– About how to determine the Supply and Demand zones (Key levels), you only need to read this article: How To Identify And Trade With Supply And Demand Zones.

– About candlesticks, I just need you to know 2 candlestick patterns: Marubozu and Pin Bar.

– Use Risk/Reward ratio with a value of 1R = 2% of the total capital. Read this article: How To Use Risk/Reward Ratio Effectively In Forex Trading.

Only risk 2% of the total capital
Only risk 2% of the total capital

Easy to read, easy to understand, easy to grasp. Just learn some background knowledge. In the following article, I will make basic plans to trade with Price Action including the capital, time, psychology…

Price Action trading examples

Although there is not an in-depth guide to Price Action, you should learn to observe the market to gradually become familiar with this strategy.

– SELL EUR/USD: 1.1815 (SL 30 pips, TP 90 pips) => R:R = 1:3 (1 part of risk for 3 parts of profit).

Reason for entry:

+ On the daily chart, EUR/USD is in a downtrend. The price has returned to the Supply level.

Reasons to Sell EUR/USD
Reasons to Sell EUR/USD

+ In the H4 chart, the main signal is the extremely strong bearish reversal red candlestick that I marked. So we have all 3 elements to enter a SELL order by Price Action: Downtrend, price retraces to the Supply level and creates a reversal candlestick signal.

SELL order EUR/USD
SELL order EUR/USD

– This GBP/JPY currency pair is entering the Supply level in the Downtrend. What I am waiting for is a bearish reversal signal (1 strong bearish candle, for example) to open a position.

Trading GBP/JPY with Price Action
Trading GBP/JPY with Price Action

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